March 1, 2021; Sarasota, Florida, USA; Mason Martin (80) of the Pittsburgh Pirates poses at Ed Smith Stadium during Media Day. Mandatory Credit: Major League Baseball photo from USA TODAY Sports

One of the many surprising decisions made by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Rule 5 draft and 40-man roster was to leave first base prospect Mason Martin unprotected. The heavy hitter has top-notch raw power and has demonstrated this throughout the minor leagues. However, do fans really need to worry about the draft Rule 5 when talking about Martin?

Last season, Martin spent most of 2021 in Altoona. He released stable .242/.318/.481 lines with .342 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Martin hit 22 homers and has a healthy 0.239 isolated batting percentage. He has a predicted game ability level of 60, but the current and future raw ability level is 70. At the end of 2021, he was promoted to Indianapolis' top three, where he hit 3 homers in just 27 shots. but

Martin is a power machine, but this power also has disadvantages. He is also a strikeout machine. He dropped in three-point shooting with a 34.3% shooting rate. This is not the first time he has a strikeout rate of more than 30%, but this is his highest record in a single season. More worrying is his 7.8% walking rate. Martin has been walking more than 12% in previous years, but he has not been able to walk often in 2021.

Now, what is certain is that both FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline regard Martin as the top 10 prospects. He has a strong raw power and is likely to be a 30+ home run in the majors. But the draft Rule 5 should not be the main issue surrounding Mason Martin. The main reason is that he is a prospect with only first base. When the Buccaneers drafted him, Martin played a few games in the outfield, but he was too slow to give full play to the role of the grass outside of emergency duties. He is almost limited to first base and designated batters.

The first baseman is usually not the target of the draft Rule 5. Since 2010, only four first basemen have been selected in the major leagues. Two of them have been returned. Of the 4 people selected, only one person finally built a good career for himself, and that is Cui Zhiman (originally selected by the Los Angeles Angels of the Seattle Mariners in 2016).

Martin's raw power makes his chances non-zero. Most teams will focus on potential customers using elite tools and hope to develop the rest in the draft rule 5. But Martin is almost a one-dimensional player in the Pittsburgh Pirate Farm system. He is an all-or-nothing heavy hitter, and his walk rate and strikeout rate last season went in the wrong direction. It is not a very promising sign. The team will pay more attention to players who are on the rise.

In addition, most teams may already have a player like Martin in the system. Power is already widespread. Many teams may want to use their picks for something more important than all-or-nothing heavy hitters, or at least use their picks for players who are moving in the right direction.

Finally, based on the fact that very few first basemen were selected in the Rule 5 draft, and Martin's swing and turnovers are a big problem, I think no team chooses him. Of course, in fact, he has the power of the light tower, and the only risk of choosing him is to get him selected from the list of 26 people throughout the season, which makes the possibility of him being selected non-zero, but it is also close to non-zero. Will get.

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